The Social and Decision Analytics Laboratory brings together statisticians and social and behavioral scientists to embrace today’s data revolution, developing evidence-based research and quantitative methods to inform policy decision-making.



Principal Investigators

Goode Brian

Brian Goode

Systems and Data Engineer

Higdon David

David Higdon


Pires Bianica

Bianica Pires

Research Assistant Professor



  • Ren Y, Cedeno V, Hu Z, Deng X, Adiga A, Barrett C, Contractor N, Ekanayake S, Epstein J, Goode B, Korkmaz G, Kuhlman C, Machi D, Macy M, Marathe M, Ramakrishnan N, Ravi R, Saraf P, Self N. Generative Modeling of Human Behavior and Social Interactions Using Abductive Analysis. In: Proceedings of the IEEE/ACM International Conference on Social Networks Analysis and Mining (ASONAM). 2018.
  • Cedeno V, Ren Y, Hu Z, Deng X, Contractor N, Ekanayake S, Epstein J, Goode B, Kuhlman C, Machi D, Macy M, Marathe M, Mortveit H, Ramakrishnan N, Saraf P, Self N. Pipelines and their Compositions for Modeling and Analysis of Controlled Online Networked Social Science Experiments. In: Proceedings of the 2018 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC). 2018.
  • Abbas K, Kang G, Chen D, Werre S, Marathe A. Demographics, perceptions, and socioeconomic factors affecting influenza vaccination among adults in the United States. PeerJ. 2018.
  • Keller S. Interviewed by Micale B, Trent T. Research team to use the science of all data to understand soldier performance. VT News. 2018.
  • Orr MG, Lebiere C, Stocco A, Pirolli P, Pires B, Kennedy WG. Multi-scale Resolution of Cognitive Architectures: A Paradigm for Simulating Minds and Society. Presented at the International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction and Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation; 2018.
  • Pires B, Korkmaz G, Ensor K, Higdon D, Keller S, Lewis B, Schroeder A. Estimating Individualized Exposure Impacts from Ambient Ozone Levels: A Synthetic Information Approach. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2018;103:146–157.
  • James J, Bulova S, Jackson K, Biesiadny T, Keller S. Interviewed by Ebi K. Fairfax County draws an innovative future that will deliver for generations to come. Smart Cities Council. 2018.
  • Keller S, Shipp S, Korkmaz G, Molfino E, Goldstein J, Lancaster V, Pires B, Higdon D, Chen D, Schroeder A. Harnessing the power of data to support community-based research. WIREs Computational Statistics. 2018:e1426.
  • Pires B, Goldstein J, Higdon D, Sabin P, Korkmaz G, Shipp S, Keller S, Ba S, Hamall K, Koehler A, Reese S. A Bayesian simulation approach for supply chain synchronization. In: Proceedings of the 2017 Winter Simulation Conference. IEEE; 2018:1571–1582.


  • Interviewed by Shipp S, Woteki C, Keller S, Nusser SM. How to put data to work in your neighborhood. The Conversation. 2017.
  • Ziemer KS, Korkmaz G. Using Text to Predict Psychological and Physical Health: A Comparison of Human Raters and Computerized Text Analysis. Computers in Human Behavior. 2017;76:122–127.
  • Korkmaz G, Kuhlman CJ, Ravi SS, Vega-Redondo F. Spreading of social contagions without key players. World Wide Web. 2017:1–35.
  • Keller S, Benson B(Cof APD, Brinkley H, Schroeder A. Interviewed by Rosplock D. Virginia Tech institute launches effort to help government embrace big data. VT News. 2017.
  • Keller SA, Lancaster VA, Shipp SS. Building Capacity for Data Driven Governance - Creating a New Foundation for Democracy. Statistics and Public Policy Journal. 2017:1–11.
  • Ziemer K, Pires B, Lancaster V, Keller S, Orr M, Shipp S. A New Lens on High School Dropout: Use of Correspondence Analysis and the Statewide Longitudinal Data System. The American Statistician. 2017.
  • Tabataba FS, Hosseinipour M, Lewis BL, Tabataba FS, Venkatramanan S, Higdon D, Chen J, Marathe MV. Epidemic Forecasting by Combining Agent-Based Models and Smart Beam-Particle Filtering Framework. In: Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Data Mining 2017. 2017.
  • Orr MG, Chen D, Ziemer K. Computational Models of Health Behavior. Psychology Press/Routledge; 2017:81–102.
  • Park J, Goldstein J, Haran M, Ferrari M. An Ensemble Approach to Predicting the Impact of Vaccination on Rotavirus Disease in Niger. arXiv. 2017.
  • Venkatramanan S, Lewis BL, Chen J, Higdon D, Kumar VSA, Marathe MV. Using data-driven agent-based models for forecasting emerging infectious diseases. Epidemics - Special Issue on Ebola Challenge. 2017.
  • Wulczyn F, Clinch R, Coulton C, Keller S, Moore J, Muschkin C, Nicklin A, LeBoeuf W, Barghaus K. Establishing a Standard Data Model for Large-Scale IDS Use. Actionable Intelligence for Social Policy, University of Pennsylvania; 2017.
  • Gibbs L, Hawn Nelson A, Dalton E, Cantor J, Shipp S, Jenkins D. IDS Governance: Setting Up for Ethical and Effective Use. Actionable Intelligence for Social Policy, University of Pennsylvania; 2017.
  • Keller S, Korkmaz G, Orr M, Schroeder A, Shipp S. The Evolution of Data Quality: Understanding the Transdisciplinary Origins of Data Quality Concepts and Approaches. Annual Review of Statistics and its Application, Vof 4. 2017;4:85–108.
  • Patterson D, Brennan N, Haeberlen A, Schroeder A, Smith A, Steif K. Towards State-of-the-Art IDS Technology and Data Security Solutions. Actionable Intelligence for Social Policy, University of Pennsylvania; 2017.
  • Shipp S. American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Flash Talk: Building Capacity for Data-Driven Governance in Local Governments. 2017.
  • Molfino E, Korkmaz G, Keller SA, Schroeder A, Shipp S, Weinberg D. Can Administrative Housing Data Replace Survey Data? Cityscape (Washington, DC). 2017;19(1):265–292.
  • Pires B, Crooks AT. Modeling the emergence of riots: A geosimulation approach. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems. 2017;61:66–80.
  • Keller SA. Strengthening Data Science Methods for Department of Defense Personnel and Readiness Mission. 2017.


  • Korkmaz G, Kuhlman CJ, Vega-Redondo F. Can Social Contagion Spread Without Key Players? In: The 3rd International Conference on Behavioral, Economic, and Socio-Cultural Computing (BESC). 2016.
  • Korkmaz G, Cadena JE, Kuhlman CJ, Marathe A, Kumar VSA, Ramakrishnan N. Multi-source models for civil unrest forecasting. Social Network Analysis and Mining. 2016;6(1):1–25.
  • Rogers A, Schroeder A. Characterizing Administrative Data Quality: A new tool . 2016.
  • Korkmaz G, Kuhlman CJ, Ravi SS, Vega-Redondo F. Approximate Contagion Model of Common Knowledge on Facebook. In: Proceedings of the 27th ACM Conference on Hypertext and Social Media. ACM; 2016:231–236.
  • Schaefer Ziemer K, Korkmaz G. "Human vs. Automated Text Analysis: Estimating Positive and Negative Affect" # "HT ’16". Presented at the In Proceedings of the 27th ACM Conference on Hypertext and Social Media (HT' 16), Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada; 2016.
  • Pires BS, Crooks A. The Geography of Conflict Diamonds: The Case of Sierra Leone. In: 9th International Conference, SBP-BRiMS 2016 Washington, DC, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2016 Proceedings. 2016.
  • Bornn L, Farrar CR, Higdon D, Murphy KP. Modeling and diagnosis of structural systems through sparse dynamic graphical models. MECHANICAL SYSTEMS AND SIGNAL PROCESSING. 2016;74:133–143.
  • Agnew-Heard KA, Lancaster VA, Bravo R, Watson C, Walters MJ, Holman MR. Multivariate Statistical Analysis of Cigarette Design Feature Influence on ISO TNCO Yields. Chemical Research in Toxicology. 2016;29(6):1051–1063.
  • Orr MG, Kaplan GA, Galea S. Neighbourhood food, physical activity, and educational environments and black/white disparities in obesity: a complex systems simulation analysis. JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH. 2016;70(9):862–867.
  • Heitmann K, Bingham D, Lawrence E, Bergner S, Habib S, Higdon D, Pope A, Biswas R, Finkel H, Frontiere N, Bhattacharya S. THE MIRA-TITAN UNIVERSE: PRECISION PREDICTIONS FOR DARK ENERGY SURVEYS. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL. 2016;820(2).
  • Chylek P, Vogelsang TJ, Klett JD, Hengartner N, Higdon D, Lesins G, Dubey MK. Indirect Aerosol Effect Increases CMIP5 Models' Projected Arctic Warming. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE. 2016;29(4):1417–1428.
  • Pires B, Goldstein J, Higdon D, Korkmaz G, Keller S, Shipp S, Hamall K, Koehler A, Reese S, Sabin P, Ba S. A Bayesian Simulation Approach for Supply Chain Synchronization. In: 2016 WINTER SIMULATION CONFERENCE (WSC). IEEE; 2016:3698–3699.
  • Weaver BP, Williams BJ, Anderson-Cook CM, Higdon DM. Computational Enhancements to Bayesian Design of Experiments Using Gaussian Processes. Bayesian Analysis. 2016;11(1):191–213.
  • Harari O, Bingham D, Dean A, Higdon D. Computer Experiments: Prediction Accuracy, Sample Size and Model Complexity Revisited. Statistica Sinica. 2016;28(2):899–919.
  • Keller SA, Shipp S, Schroeder A. Does Big Data Change the Privacy Landscape? A Review of the Issues. Vol 3. ANNUAL REVIEWS; 2016:161–180.
  • Keller S, Shipp S, Orr M, Higdon D, Korkmaz G, Schroeder A, Molfino E, Pires B, Ziemer K, Weinberg DH. Leveraging External Data Sources to Enhance Official Statistics and Products. Report Prepared for the U.S. Census Bureau. 2016.
  • Orr MG, Galea S, El-Sayed A, chen D. Systems of behavior and human health. Systems Science and Population Health. 2016;In press.
  • Orr M, Ziemer KS, Chen D. Systems of Behavior in Population Health. Oxford University Press; 2016.
  • Orr MG, Galea S, Kaplan GA. Understanding Macrosocial Policy Using Complex Systems Methods: A Case Study in Population Health. Kaplan; 2016.


  • Merrill JA, Orr M, Chen DY, Zhi Q, Gershon RR. Are We Ready for Mass Fatality Incidents? Preparedness of the US Mass Fatality Infrastructure. Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2015;10(1):87–97.
  • Pires B, Korkmaz G, Ensor K, Higdon D, Keller S, Lewis B, Schroeder A. Towards an in silico Experimental Platform for Air Quality: Houston, TX as a Case Study. Presented at the Annual Conference of the Computational Social Science Society of the Americas (CSSSA), Santa Fe, New Mexico; 2015.
  • Korkmaz G, Cadena JE, Kuhlman CJ, Marathe A, Kumar VSA, Ramakrishnan N. Combining Heterogeneous Data Sources for Civil-Unrest Forecasting. In: Proceedings of the 2015 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Network Analysis and Mining (ASONAM). ACM; 2015:258–265.
  • Abdelhamid SEM, Kuhlman CJ, Korkmaz G, Marathe MV, Ravi SS. EDISON: A Web Application for Computational Health Informatics At Scale. In: Proceedings of the 6th ACM Conference on Bioinformatics, Computational Biology and Health Informatics. ACM; 2015:413–422.
  • Pratola MT, Higdon DM. Bayesian Additive Regression Tree Calibration of Complex High-Dimensional Computer Models. Technometrics. 2015;In Press:00–00.
  • Keller S, Shipp S. Building Resilient Cities: Harnessing the Power of Urban Analytics in The Resilience Challenge: Looking at Resilience through Multiple Lens. Charles C. Thomas Ltd Publishers; 2015.
  • Cadena JE, Korkmaz G, Kuhlman CJ, Marathe A, Ramakrishnan N, Kumar VSA. Forecasting Social Unrest Using Activity Cascades. PLoS One. 2015;10(6):e0128879.
  • Orr M, Lewis B, Ziemer K, Keller S. Mathematical and Computational Simulation of the Behavioral and Social Drivers of Population Health in Population Health: Social and Behavioral Insights. 2015.
  • Orr MG, Lewis B, Ziemer K, Keller S. Search Health Topics Health Care Delivery. Issues. 2015;2013.
  • McDonnell JD, Schunck N, Higdon D, Sarich J, Wild SM, Nazarewicz W. Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory and Information Content of New Measurements. Physical Review Letters. 2015;114(12).


  • Gershon RRM, Orr MG, Zhi Q, Merrill JA, Chen D, Riley HEM, Sherman MF. Mass fatality preparedness among medical examiners/coroners in the United States: a cross-sectional study. BMC PUBLIC HEALTH. 2014;14.
  • Orr MG, Prescott MR, Cohen GH, Calabrese JR, Tamburrino MB, Liberzon I, Galea S. Potentially modifiable deployment characteristics and new-onset alcohol abuse or dependence in the US National Guard. Drug and alcohol dependence. 2014;142:325–332.
  • Orr MG, Galea S, Riddle M, Kaplan GA. Reducing racial disparities in obesity: simulating the effects of improved education and social network influence on diet behavior. ANNALS OF EPIDEMIOLOGY. 2014;24(8):563–569.
  • Keneshloo Y, Cadena JE, Korkmaz G, Ramakrishnan N. Detecting and Forecasting Domestic Political Crises: A Graph-based Approach. Presented at the ACM Web Science Conference 2014 (WebSci14), Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana; 2014.
  • Ramakrishnan N, Butler P, Muthiah S, Self N, Khandpur R, Saraf P, Wang W, Cadena JE, Kumar VSA, Korkmaz G, Kuhlman CJ, Marathe A, Zhao L, Hua T, Chen F, Lu C-T, Huang B, Srinivasan A, Trinh K, Getoor L, Katz G, Doyle A, Ackermann C, Zavorin I, Ford J, Summers K, Fayed Y, Arredondo J, Gupta D, Mares D. 'Beating the news’ with EMBERS: Forecasting Civil Unrest using Open Source Indicators. In: Proceedings of the 20th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. 2014:1799–1808.
  • Korkmaz G, Kuhlman CJ, Marathe A, Marathe MV, Vega-Redondo F. Collective Action Through Common Knowledge Using A Facebook Model. In: Proceedings of The Thirteenth International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS). 2014:253–260.


  • Gupta N, Healey DW, Stein AM, Shipp S. Innovation Policies of South Korea. Institute for Defense Analyses. 2013.
  • Koonin S, Keller S, Shipp S, Allen TW, Walejko G. Pathways to Cooperation between the Intelligence Community and the Social and Behavioral Science Communities. Institue for Defense Analyses . 2013.