West Africa experienced an unprecedented and devastating Ebola outbreak in 2014/15. During the peak of the outbreak, Liberia was the most affected country with more than 100 cases per week. In response to this devastating outbreak, epidemiological modeling studies were conducted to better understand and quantify the different disease transmission routes and evaluate the effectiveness on ongoing and potentially new intervention strategies.

Dr. Bryan Lewis and Dr. Madhav Marathe will present a data driven multi-scale approach for modeling the Ebola epidemic in West Africa. We will discuss how the models and tools were used to study a number of important analytical questions, such as: (i) computing weekly forecasts, (ii) optimally placing emergency treatment units and more generally health care facilities, and (iii) carrying out a comprehensive counter-factual analysis related to allocation of scarce pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical resources. The role of big-data and behavioral adaptation in developing the computational models will be highlighted.

Hosted by the IMAG/MSM Population Modeling Working Group.

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