Title: Predicting the spread of Zika in the Tidewater, Virginia region
Speaker: James Schlitt
Abstract: Following its riotous spread through Latin America, the first autochthonous cases of Zika Virus (ZIKV) within the continental United States were detected in the Wynwood neighborhood of Miami, Florida on July 29th, 2016 (Florida Department of Health, 2016). This presented the public health community with its first opportunity and need to describe and predict the spread of ZIKV in a US context. Cumulative case counts of locally transmitted ZIKV infection within Wynwood were compiled from the Florida Department of Health's Daily Zika Updates to provide a calibration curve. Manore, Hickmann, Wearing, and Hyman’s (2014) model of dengue virus (DENV) transmission by Aedes aegypti was calibrated to the Wynwood case data via the application of a simulated annealing algorithm. A ZIKV model was then derived by fitting projected case counts to the surveillance data via the mosquito to human transmissibility parameter, βhv. The calibrated ZIKV model was projected to the Tidewater, Virginia region using Manore et al.'s (2014) behavioral parameters for Aedes albopictus alongside seasonal forcing of mosquito density to the levels predicted by Monaghan et al. (2016). Additionally, metapopulation exposure networks for Miami-Dade county and the Tidewater, Virginia region were constructed via aggregated data from Barrett et al.’s (2009) synthetic population travel models. The completed work was used to predict the course of outbreaks by day of introduction within the Tidewater, Virginia region as well as the total ZIKV and fetal microcephaly burden for worst case scenarios. The models show the reduced threat of ZIKV to the Tidewater region due to the low seasonal density of competent mosquito vectors. Future work may further establish the utility of self-calibrating, metapopulation patch models (MPM) to describe the early emergence of novel arboviral threats and to assist public health planning and response efforts.
Title: Synthetic Population Extensions
Speaker: Samarth Swarup
I will begin by briefly describing what is in the current synthetic populations. Then I will go over a long list of extensions that we have, as a group, talked about over the past few years. Some of these have been implemented in special cases or as proofs-of-concept. I will also discuss present and planned projects that are using synthetic populations and the various challenges these pose.
Meeting number: 643 164 789
Host key: 749673
+1-855-749-4750 US TOLL FREE
+1-415-655-0001 US TOLL
Show toll-free dialing restrictions
Access code: 643 164 789